@Article{Müller-HansenHDCDAKT:2019:CaInCa,
author = "M{\"u}ller-Hansen, Finn and Heitzig, Jobst and Donges, Jonathan
F. and Cardoso, Manoel Ferreira and Dalla Nora, Eloi Lennon and
Andrade Neto, Pedro Ribeiro de and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen and
Thonicke, Kirsten",
affiliation = "{Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)} and {Potsdam
Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)} and {Potsdam
Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research (PIK)} and {Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
(PIK)}",
title = "Can intensification of cattle ranching reduce deforestation in the
Amazon? insights from an agent-based social-ecological model",
journal = "Ecological Economics",
year = "2019",
volume = "159",
pages = "198--211",
month = "May",
keywords = "Amazon deforestation, Land-use intensification, Pasture
management, Social-ecological systems, Agent-based modeling.",
abstract = "Deforestation in the Amazon with its vast consequences for the
ecosystem and climate is largely related to subsequent land use
for cattle ranching. In addition to conservation policies,
proposals to reduce deforestation include measures to intensify
cattle ranching. However, the effects of land-use intensification
on deforestation are debated in the literature. This paper
introduces the abacra model, a stylized agent-based model to study
the interplay of deforestation and the intensification of cattle
ranching in the Brazilian Amazon. The model combines social
learning and ecological processes with market dynamics. In the
model, agents adopt either an extensive or semi-intensive strategy
of cattle ranching based on the success of their neighbors. They
earn their income by selling cattle on a stylized market. We
present a comprehensive analysis of the model with statistical
methods and find that it produces highly non-linear transient
outcomes in dependence on key parameters like the rate of social
interaction and elasticity of the cattle price. We show that under
many environmental and economic conditions, intensification does
not reduce deforestation rates and sometimes even has a
detrimental effect on deforestation. Anti-deforestation policies
incentivizing fast intensification can only lower deforestation
rates under conditions in which the local cattle market
saturates.",
doi = "10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.12.025",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.12.025",
issn = "0921-8009",
language = "en",
targetfile = "muller_can.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}